The average price of 91 unleaded petrol in New Zealand reached $3.25 a litre on Friday, and the Automobile Association says motorists should not expect much relief before Christmas.
The figure comes from the fuel price app Gaspy, which showed petrol up nearly 25 cents a litre over the past 28 days. It is the highest average since late May, RNZ reported. Diesel averaged $2.96 a litre on Gaspy, still well short of the peak of about $3.80 it reached in April.
The AA expects high prices to last at least another six weeks, and possibly until mid-November. AA principal policy advisor Terry Collins was blunter about the longer outlook. “We probably won’t get much relief before Christmas, unless something really major happens geopolitically,” he told RNZ.
Global crude oil has climbed back above US$100 a barrel in recent weeks as supplies from key Middle East producers remain constrained by the conflict between the United States and Iran. Collins listed restricted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on Saudi oil pipelines, soaring insurance costs for oil tankers and a lower New Zealand dollar as the forces pushing prices up.
He also pointed to the United States midterm elections on 3 November as a reason the pressure may not ease soon. Collins suggested Iran has an incentive to keep oil tight until American voters go to the polls. “They’ve got no military might that they can attack the USA. But what they can do is make them pay through the ballot box by forcing up the price of diesel,” he said.
Official figures tell the same story, a week behind. The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s weekly fuel price monitoring data put the national average board price for regular petrol at 306 cents a litre in the week to 11 September, up from 300.5 cents a week earlier. A year ago the same measure was 260 cents. MBIE’s board price is a different measure from Gaspy’s user-reported average, so the two numbers do not match exactly, but both are moving the same way.
The crude price is the main driver. MBIE’s benchmark Dubai crude averaged US$109 a barrel that week, against US$70 a year earlier. With the New Zealand dollar buying just 58.5 US cents, that works out at NZ$187 a barrel, up from NZ$118 in September 2025. A weaker currency makes every barrel dearer for importers, even when the world price holds still.
Diesel has risen even faster over the year. MBIE’s average diesel board price was 275 cents a litre in the week to 11 September, compared with 190 cents a year earlier, a rise of roughly 45 percent. Petrol is up about 18 percent on the same comparison. Diesel carries no fuel excise at the pump because heavy vehicles pay road user charges instead, which means changes in the global price show up more sharply in what drivers pay.
That matters well beyond the family car. Collins warned diesel is where the global squeeze is tightest. “For diesel, and that’s where globally everybody’s competing, those prices are going to keep going up,” he said, adding that diesel runs trucks and harvesting equipment and has flow-on effects for fertiliser. Freight, farming and construction all run on it, and those costs tend to work their way into shop prices over the following months.
There may also be more increases already baked in. MBIE calculates an importer margin, the gap between what fuel companies pay for fuel landed in New Zealand and what they charge before taxes. In the week to 11 September that margin was 14 cents a litre for regular petrol, well below its longer-run trend of 36 cents. For diesel it was 21 cents against a trend of 48 cents. Margins that thin usually mean pump prices have not yet caught up with import costs, which suggests further rises rather than falls in the short term.
Tax makes up a large slice of every litre of petrol. In MBIE’s latest week, fuel excise and other levies came to 77 cents a litre, the emissions trading scheme added about 12 cents and GST another 39 cents. Together that is about 129 cents, or roughly 42 percent of the pump price. Fuel tax has become an election issue, with Labour saying in early September that it has costed a fuel tax freeze but not yet published the number.
For households the timing is awkward. Petrol costs already dragged on the economy through the middle of the year, with Stats NZ figures this week showing the economy grew just 0.2 percent in the June quarter as house building offset the fuel price hit. A driver filling a 50-litre tank now pays about $162 at the Gaspy average, roughly $12 more than a month ago.
Prices are still some way below the autumn highs. In the second week of April, MBIE’s average regular petrol price reached 351 cents a litre and diesel topped 383 cents. On MBIE’s measure petrol is now about 45 cents below that peak, and diesel about a dollar below it.
There is some reassurance on supply. Collins said New Zealand faces a price problem rather than a shortage, with fuel storage now in place at Marsden Point and closer monitoring of shipments. “What we’ve done is the government and the industries have worked really effectively in putting in place a plan around storage,” he said.
The practical advice for drivers has not changed. Prices vary widely between stations and regions, so comparing prices before filling up and using discount cards where they are offered can save several cents a litre. Anyone watching the trend can follow the weekly figures on the NEWS WIRE fuel prices tracker, and fuel stocks and incoming tankers on our New Zealand fuel situation page.
How are higher fuel prices changing the way you drive, shop or run your business? Tell us in the comments below.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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