Flu season passes its peak in New Zealand but doctors warn of a second wave

New Zealand’s worst flu season in a decade has passed its peak, with hospital admissions for flu-like illness falling sharply in the latest national figures. But doctors are warning the winter bugs may not be finished yet, and they are urging anyone who has not had a flu jab to get one.

RNZ reported on Saturday that hospitalisations for severe acute respiratory illness have dropped to about 10 in every 100,000 people, based on the latest surveillance data from PHF Science, the public health science agency that used to be part of ESR. Admissions among children under five have fallen for the first time since 2 August.

Even so, the fall comes from a very high base. RNZ noted that the latest hospitalisation rate is still about the same as the peak of last year’s flu outbreak, which shows how big this year’s season was.

GPs are seeing the same drop in their waiting rooms. Luke Bradford, clinical lead at the College of General Practitioners, told RNZ that after so many cases this year, enough people now have some immunity, either from vaccination or from having caught the virus, to slow its spread.

“That’s why the peak drops off each year – it gets to the point where the virus can’t pass on to the next person at the same rate, because they are immune to it,” Bradford said.

Auckland GP Mamaeroa David, a senior Māori medical adviser at the Immunisation Advisory Centre, welcomed the drop as warmer weather arrives. But she told RNZ that a second spike, or a long tail of winter illness, is not unusual.

“Often every year, we relax, but I feel like we’ve got another cold spell to come and that’s when we get another round of sickness come through,” David said.

This year’s surge was driven by influenza A, specifically a fast-spreading H3N2 strain known as subclade K, which some have nicknamed “super-K”. Doctors say influenza B, a different type of flu that often turns up later in the season, could still take off.

The season arrived later than usual and then climbed quickly. The Spinoff reported on 18 August that flu cases had doubled in the week to 9 August, and that Hato Hone St John had its busiest day on record on 14 August. Two days later, 1News reported that 177 people were admitted to four Auckland hospitals with severe respiratory illness between 9 and 16 August, up from 125 the week before. That was Auckland’s highest weekly admission rate since 2015.

Babies, toddlers and people aged 65 and over were hit hardest. Young children were the age group most often admitted to intensive care with respiratory illness, 1News reported at the time. PHF Science’s Dr Hannah Cooper told 1News that flu was circulating alongside plenty of RSV and rhinovirus, the common cold virus, creating what she called “a very, very high level of respiratory illness.”

The pressure on young children prompted the Government to bring forward free flu vaccines for under-fives. Pharmac had decided to fund the vaccine for all children aged six months to under five from 2027, but the rollout was moved forward to 1 September, covering more than 260,000 children. Health Minister Simeon Brown said at the time that “young children get sicker from the flu than most people realise, and they are more likely to end up in hospital.”

The flu jab is now free for children aged six months to under five, for people aged 65 and over, for pregnant people, and for many others with health conditions that put them at higher risk of serious illness. The funded programme runs until 31 December, and Health New Zealand’s flu vaccine page sets out who qualifies. Vaccines are available through GPs, pharmacies and Māori and Pacific health providers.

Is it too late to bother? Health authorities say no. In its September influenza update for health professionals, Health New Zealand said this year’s vaccine remains well matched to the strains going around, and that vaccination is still worthwhile even for people who already had influenza A this season, because it also protects against other strains such as influenza B. Children aged six months to under four need two doses at least four weeks apart, so parents of young children who have not started yet will want to book soon.

Both Bradford and David told RNZ that anyone who has not been vaccinated should still take the chance. Bradford said he hoped people would remember how bad this season was when it comes time to get vaccinated next year.

The timing of next year’s season matters too. New Zealand’s flu vaccination programme normally opens in April, well before winter. This year’s outbreak did not take off until August, and 1News reported that nearly 6,000 people were vaccinated in a single week in August as admissions climbed. Whether next year follows the usual pattern or arrives late again is impossible to predict, which is why doctors keep saying the best time to get the jab is before the virus arrives.

For now, the practical advice has not changed. People who are sick should stay home, cover coughs and sneezes, wash their hands often, and call Healthline on 0800 611 116 for free health advice at any hour. Anyone with trouble breathing, or a baby or elderly relative who is getting worse rather than better, should seek medical help quickly.

After a winter that put hospitals and ambulance services under heavy strain, the fall in hospital admissions is welcome news. But with spring weather in New Zealand as changeable as ever, doctors are not ready to call the season over just yet.

How did the flu season hit your household this year, and will you get the jab earlier next year? Tell us in the comments below.

This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂