Rain, wind and snow set to disrupt the first weekend of the school holidays

Anyone hoping to start the winter school holidays with a run of settled weather is set to be disappointed. A cold and unsettled change is sweeping up the country, bringing heavy rain, damaging winds and snow to low levels, and MetService has already issued a string of warnings as the first weekend of the break gets underway.

The change is driven by a front that pushed onto Fiordland on Friday afternoon before spreading north across the rest of the country over the weekend. Behind it, colder air and a developing low are dragging the snow level right down and setting up a prolonged spell of wet weather for parts of both islands. Forecasters say the details of exactly where the rain and wind will hit hardest are still firming up, but the broad picture is clear enough that people are being told to plan around it.

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The first orange heavy rain warnings landed on Friday. MetService placed Fiordland under an orange warning from Friday afternoon, with the Westland ranges, and the headwaters of the Otago and Canterbury lakes, following overnight. Orange is the middle tier of the warning system and signals rain heavy enough to be a threat to people, animals and property, so it is not a level to shrug off.

Saturday is shaping up as the windiest day of the run. An orange wind warning covers the Canterbury high country, where gusts could reach 130km/h, strong enough to bring down branches, make driving difficult and knock out power. Otago and Southland are also in for a blow, with strong winds forecast to touch 90km/h. MetService meteorologist Brayden White warned motorists to take it steady on exposed roads.

“It could be fairly windy and your car could be getting shoved around a fair bit, so just make sure you’re driving to the conditions and making smart choices,” White told RNZ.

By Sunday and into Monday the cold air really bites. Heavy rain is expected across much of the country, and snow could fall to around 400m in the Southern Alps. That combination means road snowfall warnings are likely to go up on the mountain passes, the same routes families often take to reach the ski fields during the holidays. Lindis Pass, Porters Pass, Arthur’s Pass and Lewis Pass are the usual candidates when snow drops to those levels, and drivers should expect the possibility of chains being required, or passes closing for a time while crews clear them.

White said the timing had an upside for families chasing a snow day, as long as they took the conditions seriously before setting off.

“A great excuse to take the kids out for a snow day, but if you’re planning on doing some travel, just know you may need chains or the roads may be closed for a time,” he said.

The disruption does not end with the weekend. Early next week a slow-moving low is expected to park itself over central New Zealand, feeding in strong southeasterlies and a long, drawn-out period of rain. That is the part of the forecast that has forecasters most watchful. The Marlborough area is flagged as the biggest area of concern, with a moderate chance of heavy rain warnings for southern Wairarapa and Marlborough from Tuesday into Wednesday. Possible severe gales are also on the cards for the South Island West Coast and around Cook Strait, along with southeast gales for the Wellington eastern hills and the Marlborough Sounds.

Rain falling for days on end on already damp ground is what raises the risk of surface flooding and slips, and central New Zealand has had more than its share of both this year. The advice from MetService is the standard but sensible line ahead of a system like this. Keep an eye on the latest forecasts and warnings rather than relying on a single outlook, because the timing and track of the low can shift, and a warning that looks minor on Friday can be upgraded by Sunday.

For the roughly hundreds of thousands of pupils now on their two-week break, and the parents juggling time off around them, the message is to build some flexibility into any travel plans. Getting over the passes to the snow may need a later start, a set of chains in the boot, or a willingness to turn back. Those heading to the lower North Island or the top of the South Island in the early part of next week may want to watch the Marlborough and Wellington warnings closely before committing to a long drive.

The wider outlook has the worst of the wet and windy weather easing back around the middle of next week, though forecasters have not ruled out further systems rolling through after that. You can check the current warnings on the MetService warnings page, and 1News has more on the school holiday forecast.

Are you heading up the passes for a snow day, or battening down for the wind and rain where you are? Tell us how the weather is looking in your part of the country in the comments below.

This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂