National has fallen to its lowest level of support since Christopher Luxon took over the party, and a closer look at the same poll suggests the ground under every party is far less settled than the headline numbers imply. More than half of the people surveyed said they would seriously consider voting for more than one party, a sign the 2026 election is still wide open with just months to run.
The figures come from the RNZ-Reid Research poll, which surveyed 1,000 people between 2 and 9 July and carries a margin of error of 3.1 percent. Labour held the top spot on 34 percent, down 1.6 points since March but still comfortably ahead of National on 28.7 percent. For National that was a fall of 2.1 points and a fourth decline in a row, the weakest result the party has recorded with this pollster since Luxon became leader in November 2021.
The smaller parties told the more interesting story. New Zealand First rose for a third straight poll to 11.5 percent, its best showing with Reid Research since 2017. The Green Party edged up to 10.3 percent and ACT lifted to 7.8 percent. The party that jumped off the page was The Opportunity Party, which more than doubled its support to 4.7 percent, leaving it just 0.3 points short of the 5 percent threshold a party needs to enter Parliament without winning an electorate seat. Te Pāti Māori sat on 2.3 percent.
On the preferred prime minister question, Labour leader Chris Hipkins stayed in front on 23.9 percent, up 3.2 points, while Luxon rose 2.7 points to 20 percent. New Zealand First leader Winston Peters was third on 13.2 percent. Both major party leaders improved, which makes National’s slide harder to pin on Luxon alone.
If those numbers were repeated on election day, the current coalition would scrape back in. National would return 36 MPs, alongside 15 for New Zealand First and 10 for ACT, giving the three parties 61 seats in the 120-seat House. On the other side, Labour would take 43 seats, the Greens 13 and Te Pāti Māori three, for 59. That is a one-seat majority, the kind of result that turns every marginal electorate and every late swing into a potential government-maker.
What makes the poll worth a second read is a follow-up breakdown RNZ published on 17 July, which looked past first preferences to how firm those preferences actually are. It found 54.4 percent of respondents would seriously consider voting for more than one party. When people were asked which parties they were genuinely weighing up, the hard core of committed support for each party turned out to be much smaller than the headline figures. Labour’s committed floor was 15.7 percent and National’s was 12.8 percent, meaning well over half of each party’s stated support is, in principle, up for grabs.
That softness cuts in a particular direction. When broader considerations were factored in, both major parties shed support, Labour by 5.3 points and National by 4.4, while The Opportunity Party climbed from 4.7 to 6 percent and crossed the threshold. In that scenario a party with no seats today becomes a potential kingmaker, because the centre-right bloc on its own would command only 48.6 percent, not enough to govern. It is a reminder that under MMP the arithmetic of who can form a government matters more than which single party finishes first.
For National, the frustration is that the slide is happening even as it rolls out policies designed to be popular, including compulsory KiwiSaver, the baby boost payment and cheap solar loans. Voters are also starting to feel a little less gloomy about the economy. In her analysis for RNZ, political editor Jo Moir wrote that National is “just stuck in the mud” despite the improving mood, and noted that the deeper worry inside the party is not this term but the next. A stronger New Zealand First and ACT after the election would claim more ministerial posts, leaving fewer around the Cabinet table for National and pushing some of its MPs to the back benches.
Peters and ACT leader David Seymour will read the same numbers very differently. Each is polling at or near its strongest in years, and each has an obvious interest in arriving at any post-election negotiation with more MPs than last time. That dynamic helps explain why the coalition partners have been increasingly willing to stake out their own ground in public rather than march in step with the larger party, from social media rules to spending priorities.
A single poll is a snapshot, not a forecast, and Reid Research is one of several pollsters whose results do not always line up. But the picture across recent surveys has been consistent enough to take seriously. The two big parties are both below their recent peaks, the minor parties are carrying more of the load, and a large slice of the public has not made up its mind. With the election due later this year, that combination points to a campaign in which small shifts could decide who governs.
New Zealanders who want to see where they sit across the parties can work through the issues with our voting tool, which matches your views on the major policy questions to the parties contesting the 2026 election.
What do you make of the numbers, and is the soft vote a sign of frustration or genuine open-mindedness? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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