New Zealand’s food and fibre sector is on track to deliver a record export year, with the Ministry for Primary Industries forecasting the country’s primary sector exports will reach $62 billion in the year to June 2026 — surpassing the current record of $60.4 billion set just a year earlier.
The forecast, published in MPI’s latest primary industry outlook, represents a 3 per cent increase on last year’s record and underlines how central the land-based economy remains to New Zealand’s economic identity. At a time when uncertainty around global trade is running high and geopolitical tensions are weighing on commodity markets, the projected result offers a measure of reassurance — though analysts warn the figures could yet be shaved by shifting demand conditions abroad.
Dairy continues to dominate, accounting for 44 per cent of the total with an expected $27.4 billion in export earnings — up 1 per cent on the previous year. The farmgate milk price has settled at $9.70 per kilogram of milksolids, providing farmers with solid returns after several years of volatility. While the dairy result is firm rather than spectacular, it provides a stable foundation for the wider rural economy.
The standout performer this year is the meat and wool sector, where export earnings are forecast to rise 7 per cent to $13.2 billion. Strong demand from European and United States markets, combined with tighter global supply conditions, has pushed returns higher across red meat categories. The result is a welcome turnaround for sheep and beef farmers who have navigated a difficult few years of thin margins and high input costs.
Horticulture is the sector generating the most excitement among rural industry watchers. Projected earnings of $9.2 billion — up 5 per cent — have been supported by record production seasons for kiwifruit and apples. Zespri, the marketer of New Zealand kiwifruit to most of the world, is forecasting a record 221 million trays of kiwifruit from the 2025/26 season, marginally above the previous record of 217 million trays set just a year ago. Kiwifruit export revenue is expected to reach $4.9 billion this year and grow toward $6.2 billion by 2030, driven by expanding orchards and increasing demand in Asian and European markets.
Forestry is forecast to contribute $6.3 billion to total primary sector exports, a modest 2 per cent increase on the previous year. The sector has been held back by subdued construction activity in key overseas markets and ongoing uncertainty about the direction of global trade policy. New Zealand log exporters, heavily reliant on China as their primary destination, have been navigating a slower Chinese housing market that has dampened demand for construction timber.
Seafood is the one sector expected to go backwards, with forecast earnings of $2.1 billion representing a 3 per cent decline. Lower aquaculture production and softening rock lobster prices — lobster being New Zealand’s most valuable seafood export by unit value — have taken the shine off what is otherwise a resilient industry. Biosecurity challenges and changing ocean conditions have added complexity for producers trying to meet volume targets.
MPI Director General Ray Smith acknowledged the record is within reach but cautioned that the conditions supporting it are not guaranteed to hold. MPI noted in its outlook that “global supply is outpacing demand growth, putting downward pressure on prices” across a range of commodity categories. That reality — where production volumes are rising globally even as demand growth moderates — is a structural challenge the New Zealand primary sector has long had to navigate.
Trade policy uncertainty adds another layer of risk to the outlook. The disruption caused by shifting tariff settings in major economies, particularly the United States, has left exporters in some sectors uncertain about future access conditions. While New Zealand’s free trade agreements provide a degree of shelter, the broader environment of economic nationalism means no exporter can take market access for granted. Forestry in particular has flagged that trade uncertainty is already softening near-term demand signals from some markets.
Despite those risks, the projected result is a genuine landmark for New Zealand’s export economy. A $62 billion primary sector year would validate the country’s long-standing positioning as a producer of premium, traceable food and fibre products. For rural communities, the figures translate into farm gate returns, regional employment, and investment in land and infrastructure that flows across provincial economies from Northland to Southland.
The primary sector accounts for roughly 80 per cent of New Zealand’s merchandise exports and represents one of the clearest competitive advantages the country holds in global markets. As the world’s population grows and the middle classes in Asia and the developing world expand their purchasing power, demand for the kind of high-quality food products New Zealand produces is expected to grow over the medium and long term — providing a foundation for the sector’s continued strength even when individual seasons or commodity cycles disappoint.
The full primary industry forecasts are detailed in the Ministry for Primary Industries outlook report. Coverage of the forecast also appeared in the New Zealand Herald.
If you have thoughts on what a record primary sector export year means for New Zealand’s rural communities, or on the risks facing the sector from global trade uncertainty, share them in the comments below.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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