The cost of living is the biggest worry for Māori voters by a wide margin, and seven in 10 think the Government is doing a poor job of running the country, according to a new poll released this week with the election seven weeks away.
The survey of 1000 Māori adults was carried out by Curia Market Research for Whakaata Māori, the public Māori broadcaster, between 29 August and 10 September. Te Ao Māori News published the first results on Wednesday 16 September, and 1News reported further detail on Thursday. Half the respondents were reached by phone and half through an online panel. The maximum margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, and results for smaller groups such as age bands, regions and each electoral roll carry wider margins.
Asked to name the single biggest issue facing Māori, 42% said the cost of living. Relations between Māori and the Crown came a distant second on 15%. Health and housing were each named by 7%, and jobs, education and the Māori language by 6% each. Crime drew 3% and the environment 2%.
The money worries were sharpest among younger people. According to 1News, 49% of those aged 18 to 30 named the cost of living as the top issue, while older respondents were more likely to point to Crown relations.
Only 17% of those polled said the Government was doing a good job, against 72% who said it was doing a poor job and 12% who were unsure. The same 72% said the Government had weakened the partnership under the Treaty of Waitangi, while 12% said it had strengthened it.
The biggest divide in how people rated the Government was not age or gender but where they live. In Auckland 33% of Māori respondents said the Government was doing a good job. That fell to 22% in Wellington and 19% in Christchurch, then to 9% in provincial towns and just 4% in rural areas, where 81% rated its performance as poor. Te Ao Māori News reported there was no significant difference on this question between voters on the Māori roll and those on the general roll.
Women were more critical than men. Only 10% of women rated the Government’s performance as good, compared with 24% of men. By age, people between 46 and 60 were the harshest, with 79% giving a poor rating, while those aged 61 and over were the most positive at 22%.
On party support across all Māori voters, Labour led on 31%, followed by Te Pāti Māori on 18%, the Greens on 17%, NZ First on 8%, National on 6% and Opportunity on 4%. A further 6% were undecided. ACT was on 2%.
The picture changes sharply depending on which roll people are on. Among voters on the Māori roll, who choose the MPs for the seven Māori electorates, Te Pāti Māori led the party vote on 29%, just ahead of Labour on 27% and the Greens on 16%. NZ First was on 6% and the new Te Tai Tokerau Party on 4%. Among Māori on the general roll, Te Pāti Māori’s party vote fell to low single figures and Labour was the most popular choice, while National and NZ First each drew 10%.
Te Ao Māori News compared the Māori roll figures with the 2023 election result, excluding undecided voters. On that basis Labour’s share has dropped from 44% to 28%, while the Greens have almost doubled from 9% to 17%. Te Pāti Māori’s share was broadly unchanged at about 30%. At the 2023 election the party won six of the seven Māori electorates, tripling its caucus once special votes were counted, with Labour holding only Ikaroa-Rāwhiti.
The poll also tested whether last year’s internal rift at Te Pāti Māori, which ended with Te Tai Tokerau MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Te Tai Tonga MP Tākuta Ferris parting ways with the party leadership, has hurt it. Overall 31% said the divisions made them less likely to vote for the party and 17% more likely, while 38% said it made no difference. On the Māori roll the effect cancelled out, with 27% saying more likely and 27% less likely.
Chris Hipkins was the most preferred prime minister across all respondents on 16%, followed by Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke on 13%, former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on 9% and NZ First leader Winston Peters on 8%. Among voters on the Māori roll, Maipi-Clarke came first on 19%. Asked which party best understands the aspirations of Māori, 47% chose Te Pāti Māori, 15% Labour and 9% the Greens.
Te Ao Māori News noted that Curia also polls for the National Party and the Taxpayers’ Union. Curia left the Research Association, the industry body for market researchers, in 2024.
The future of the Māori seats themselves has also come back into the campaign. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon promised in August to hold a referendum on the MMP voting system if National is re-elected. RNZ reported on Thursday that neither the Ministry of Justice nor the Electoral Commission could estimate what such a referendum would cost. The Electoral Commission told RNZ “we can’t provide a ballpark cost for a referendum as it depends on costs at the time”.
RNZ also asked Luxon whether he could rule out a question on abolishing the Māori seats. ACT proposed such a question for the 2011 MMP referendum, but it did not go ahead because of National’s confidence and supply agreement with the then Māori Party. Luxon did not rule it out. “Sorry, look, again, you’ll see all our constitutional policy as part of a justice policy that will get released closer to the election,” he said. RNZ said the Prime Minister’s office had not responded to several requests over the past month for more detail.
The general election is on 7 November. With Labour and National both polling below 30% nationally, the Māori electorates could again decide how many seats Te Pāti Māori holds and how large the next Parliament is. If you are still weighing up your own party vote, our voting tool can show which party best matches your views.
Does the cost of living outweigh everything else for your vote this year, or do other issues matter more to you? Tell us what you think in the comments below.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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