Labour has nudged ahead of National in a new poll, but the bigger story is how little support the two old parties now share between them. The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll, released on Tuesday 15 September, puts Labour on 28% and National on 27%. Together that is just 55% of the vote.
It is the second poll this month to put both major parties below 30%. The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll released on 7 September had National on 29.0% and Labour on 25.9%.
The one-point gap between Labour and National in the new poll means little on its own. According to Stuff’s report on the poll, Freshwater Strategy surveyed 1011 eligible voters aged 18 and over online between 4 and 11 September, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. On those numbers the two parties are effectively level.
What stands out is the direction of travel. Labour is down seven points on the same poll in June, although it remains slightly above the 26.9% it won at the 2023 election. National has dropped two points since June and now sits about 11 points below the 38.1% it won in 2023. The Post reported that fall was equivalent to National shedding more than 300,000 votes, with much of that support appearing to move to its coalition partners.
The smaller parties have picked up the slack. The Greens are on 14%, up four points since June. NZ First is on 13% and ACT on 9%, both up a point. Opportunity, led by Qiulae Wong, is on 6%, enough to clear the 5% threshold without winning an electorate. Te Pāti Māori is unchanged on 2%. The Post said respondents could pick Opportunity by name alongside the parties already in Parliament, rather than finding it under “other”, which may help explain why its result is higher than the 4.5% it recorded in the Curia poll.
To put that 55% in context, Newswire added up the party vote for National and Labour at every general election since MMP began in 1996. The lowest combined share was 62.1% at the first MMP election in 1996. The next lowest was 62.2% in 2002, the year National slumped to 20.9% while Labour won 41.3%. At the last election in 2023 the two parties shared 65.0% of the vote.
| Election | National | Labour | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 33.9% | 28.2% | 62.1% |
| 1999 | 30.5% | 38.7% | 69.2% |
| 2002 | 20.9% | 41.3% | 62.2% |
| 2005 | 39.1% | 41.1% | 80.2% |
| 2008 | 44.9% | 34.0% | 78.9% |
| 2011 | 47.3% | 27.5% | 74.8% |
| 2014 | 47.0% | 25.1% | 72.2% |
| 2017 | 44.5% | 36.9% | 81.3% |
| 2020 | 25.6% | 50.0% | 75.6% |
| 2023 | 38.1% | 26.9% | 65.0% |
| Poll, Sept 2026 | 27% | 28% | 55% |
On this poll the big two would be about seven points below even that 1996 low. In 2002 the low came from one party’s collapse while the other did well. In the new poll neither party is above 28%.
Newswire also ran the poll’s party figures through the Sainte-Laguë formula the Electoral Commission uses to share out Parliament’s 120 seats, assuming Te Pāti Māori holds at least one electorate so its 2% counts. The result is Labour 34 seats, National 33, the Greens 17, NZ First 16, ACT 11, Opportunity 7 and Te Pāti Māori 2. That gives the current governing parties 60 seats, one short of the 61 needed for a majority. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 53 seats, and adding Opportunity’s seven would also take that side to 60. Those totals match The Post’s own modelling. Electorate results and any overhang seats could change the final picture.
Not every poll has National this low. The Curia poll had National three points ahead of Labour, and the Herald-Motu Research poll of polls, updated last week, had National on 30.3% and Labour on 27.9%, according to The Spinoff.
The leaders’ numbers moved in Labour’s favour. Chris Hipkins widened his lead as preferred prime minister, on 45% against 35% for Christopher Luxon. Hipkins was up one point on June and Luxon down two. Another 16% preferred neither man and 4% were unsure.
The national mood has barely shifted. In the new poll 56% of respondents said New Zealand was heading in the wrong direction and 27% said it was heading in the right direction. The wrong-direction figure was 55% in February and 57% in June. Writing in The Post, columnist Matthew Hooton argued the change has come in how voters see the major parties rather than the country. “It is confidence in National, Labour, Luxon or Hipkins being capable or even willing to do something to improve things that has collapsed,” he wrote, as quoted by The Spinoff.
The poll was funded by Infrastructure New Zealand, and the data was weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.
The election is on 7 November, 53 days after this poll was released, and enrolment closes on 25 October. With support spread this widely, small shifts in the final weeks could decide which side forms a government. If you are still weighing up where the parties stand, try Newswire’s voting tool.
Is the slide in support for Labour and National a lasting move towards smaller parties, or will voters drift back to the big two by November? Tell us what you think in the comments below.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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