New Zealand gained 17,600 more people than it lost in the year to June, up from a net gain of 10,300 the year before, according to provisional estimates Stats NZ released on Friday. Almost all of the improvement came from people choosing not to leave, rather than from a surge of new arrivals.
Migrant arrivals totalled about 130,700 for the June 2026 year, a rise of 1 percent on the previous June year. Migrant departures fell around 5 percent to about 113,100. The gap between those two numbers is the whole story, and it moved because fewer people packed up, not because many more turned up.
“The increase in net migration in the June 2026 year was due to a 5 percent fall in migrant departures and a 1 percent rise in migrant arrivals, compared with the June 2025 year,” Stats NZ international migration statistics spokesperson Dave O’Donovan said.
Set against the long run, the arrivals side of the ledger looks healthy and the departures side does not. Across the June years from 2002 to 2025, New Zealand averaged 122,700 migrant arrivals and 91,500 departures, for an average annual net gain of 31,200. Arrivals this year ran about 8,000 above that long-run average. Departures ran roughly 21,600 above it. The net gain of 17,600 is a little over half the historical norm, and the reason is entirely the number of people walking out the door.
Splitting the figures by citizenship makes the pattern plainer. New Zealand citizens recorded a net loss of 37,700 over the June year, made up of 63,900 long-term departures against 26,200 arrivals home. Non-New Zealand citizens recorded a net gain of 55,300, from 104,500 arrivals and 49,200 departures. In other words, migration from abroad is doing the heavy lifting to offset a steady outflow of New Zealanders.
That outflow is easing rather than reversing. Interest.co.nz reported that citizen departures are down about 5.5 percent on the 2024 peak, while the number of New Zealanders coming home rose about 18.6 percent. Both trends help, but the country is still losing roughly 37,700 of its own citizens a year on a net basis, most of a decent-sized provincial city.
The arrivals are heavily concentrated by country of citizenship. India led with about 11,046 net, followed by China on 10,207, the Philippines on 7,982, Sri Lanka on 4,070 and Nepal on 1,970. The United Kingdom went the other way with a net loss of 564.
For employers, more people in the country is the raw material of labour supply, but it is landing in a soft hiring market. Job advertisements have now fallen for four consecutive months, so new arrivals are competing for a shrinking pool of vacancies. Migration adds to the workforce and to consumer demand at the same time, and when vacancies are scarce the demand effect tends to show up first, in rents, groceries and retail tills, before the labour supply effect shows up in easier recruitment.
The quarterly numbers suggest that demand effect will build slowly. The June 2026 quarter alone delivered a net gain of just 1,475 people, from 28,616 arrivals and 27,140 departures. The June quarter is typically one of the weaker ones for net migration, but a figure that small is a reminder the annual improvement is a gentle trend rather than a step change. Recent card spending data has been similarly modest, with retail spending up 2 percent in July.
Australia remains the obvious pull on the departures side. The OECD’s economic survey of New Zealand, published in May, noted that departures continue to be dominated by New Zealand citizens, particularly those heading to Australia, and that this adds to hiring difficulties in some sectors even while the overall labour market stays weak. Higher Australian wages in trades, mining, health and construction do not disappear because vacancies fall here.
The policy settings around all of this shift in a fortnight. Immigration New Zealand has confirmed that changes to the Skilled Migrant Category take effect on 24 August, adding two new residence pathways. A Trades and Technician Pathway covers people in trades and technician roles holding a Level 4 or higher qualification with four or more years of relevant experience, including a period working in New Zealand at the category’s median wage. A Skilled Work Experience Pathway covers people with five or more years of relevant experience and two years of New Zealand work at 1.1 times that median wage, with higher wage thresholds for occupations on the amber and red lists. The changes were first announced in March.
Whether those pathways move the numbers will not be clear for months, and they only address one side of the equation. The arrivals side is already running above its long-run average. The gap that has held net migration below normal since 2023 sits on the departures side, and no residence pathway keeps a 28 year old plumber from taking a job in Perth.
The next monthly update from Stats NZ is due in mid September, and it will show whether the winter months extended the trend or stalled it.
You can see how arrivals, departures and the resulting population change have moved over the past two decades in our interactive migration tool.
Are you seeing the effects of migration in your own workplace or town, or thinking about leaving yourself? Tell us in the comments below.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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