Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has ruled out any governing arrangement with the Opportunity Party, the small tax reform party that is now within touching distance of Parliament and, on current polling, of holding the balance of power after the 7 November election.
Speaking after Monday’s Cabinet meeting, the National leader said tax was the dividing line. “We wouldn’t be in business with people who want to increase taxes,” he told reporters, describing it as a “very, very strong position”, RNZ reported. His office later confirmed the comments amounted to a formal rule-out.
Luxon singled out two Opportunity policies. He said the party’s universal basic income would “make every New Zealander a beneficiary” and that its proposed land tax “is going to be massive”.
Those two policies are the planks Opportunity has built its campaign on. The party is proposing a citizen’s income of $19,400 a year, tax free, for every adult, which works out at roughly $373 a week. It would replace main benefits including Jobseeker Support, the Student Allowance, Sole Parent Support and the Supported Living Payment. Funding would come from a land value tax of 1.75 percent in urban areas and 0.5 percent in rural areas, charged on the value of the land rather than the buildings sitting on it. The party says the land tax on its own would pay for the citizen’s income and still leave about $4 billion over.
Party leader Qiulae Wong argues that describing the package as a tax rise leaves out the other half of it. She says the full policy would cut tax for 70 percent of New Zealanders, and she has invited National to engage with the detail rather than the label.
A day after the rule-out, Wong said her party’s position had not shifted. “We are still here, ready and willing to have that conversation when he is,” she told RNZ. “I think there’s a lot on our policy platform, what we stand for, that National would want to further.”
She also pointed at the arithmetic that may yet decide the matter for him. “They might need us to form a government, in which case I guess their tune might change.”
Wong has described the whole exercise of ruling parties in and out as “the old school way” of doing politics, and one voters are tiring of. “The tribalism is not taking us anywhere, and it’s not solving our big issues,” she said.
The numbers are why the exchange matters at all. The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, taken online between 2 and 9 July with a maximum margin of error of 3.1 percent, put Opportunity on 4.7 percent. That is up 2.7 points on the previous poll and just 0.3 of a point short of the 5 percent threshold a party must clear to enter Parliament without winning an electorate seat. Labour led on 34 percent, down 1.6 points. National fell 2.1 points to 28.7 percent, its fourth consecutive decline in that series and its weakest showing since Luxon became leader in November 2021. New Zealand First rose 0.9 points to 11.5 percent, its best Reid Research result since July 2017. The Greens edged up 0.2 points to 10.3 percent and ACT gained 0.8 points to 7.8 percent.
RNZ reported that if Opportunity made it into Parliament on those numbers, its support would be needed by either the current coalition parties or the Opposition parties to form a government. That is the awkward part of a rule-out under MMP. New Zealand has used the system since 1996 and no party has governed alone in that time, so a leader who closes a door in July may find it is the only door left in November.
Luxon is not alone in his view of the policy. ACT leader David Seymour said the rule-out only made explicit what he thought was already plain. “I already thought it was obvious that parties of sensible economics can’t work with people who want to put every New Zealand adult on welfare, then tax your property to pay for it,” he said.
Labour has not made the same call. Leader Chris Hipkins said his party would work through its options closer to the election and would do so carefully. “We’re going to do that based on principle, rather than who we’ve got the pip with on any given day,” he said. He also took a swipe at his opposite number, saying “unlike Christopher Luxon I’m not a pushover, I’m not going to turn around after the election.”
Labour campaign chair Kieran McAnulty questioned whether the rule-out had been planned at all, telling reporters “I think they themselves are surprised by the decision”, the Otago Daily Times reported. He noted that Luxon left the media conference shortly afterwards without having announced anything.
Whether the rule-out helps or hurts National is not obvious. It gives voters certainty about what a party vote for National buys, which is the standard argument for making these calls early. It also removes a bargaining chip, and it hands Opportunity something small parties on the edge of the threshold usually struggle to buy, which is a week of national attention on their tax policy at exactly the moment undecided voters start paying attention.
Opportunity has never been in Parliament. It has contested three general elections without clearing 5 percent or winning an electorate, and its best result to date left it well short. A poll is not a result, and the 4.7 percent figure sits inside the margin of error on both sides of the threshold, which means the party could as easily be sitting on 3 percent as on 6.
Voters wanting to see where their own views sit against each party’s tax and welfare policies can work through the NEWS WIRE voting tool, which matches your answers on the main policy questions against the positions the parties have published.
Voting opens on 26 October, 12 days before election day on Saturday 7 November. Enrolment closes at midnight on Sunday 25 October.
Do you think leaders should rule parties out before an election, or should they keep their options open and let the numbers decide? Leave a comment below and tell us where you stand.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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