Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins met for the last time before the 7 November election on Tuesday night, in a one hour debate hosted by Stuff and The Post that opened on the health system and ended with the two leaders shouting over each other about the economy. It came on a day when two polls gave New Zealand two different pictures of who is winning.
The 1News-Verian poll released at 6pm had National jumping four points to 32 per cent, with Labour down one to 27 per cent, its lowest since the 2023 election. The Greens were on 16 per cent, ACT on 11, New Zealand First on 8 and Opportunity on 7. On those numbers 1News projected 38 seats for National, 32 for Labour, 19 for the Greens, 13 for ACT, nine for New Zealand First and eight for Opportunity, leaving National, ACT and New Zealand First on 60 seats and short of a majority without Opportunity.
Earlier in the day The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll, paid for by Infrastructure New Zealand and surveying 1,458 voters between 9 and 19 October, had Labour narrowly ahead on 28.7 per cent to National’s 27.6, with the Greens on 14.3, New Zealand First on 11.8, ACT on 9 and Opportunity on 5.4. The Post’s own seat calculation put the three coalition parties on 59 and Labour, the Greens and Te PΔti MΔori on 54, with Opportunity’s seven seats deciding who governs.
Both polls therefore end in the same place even though they start from different numbers. Neither bloc gets there without Opportunity, and Luxon has again ruled out working with a party that wants a land tax. Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong told 1News her party would make one more approach. “We will reach out if he doesn’t call us and give him one last chance to have that conversation,” she said, “and if he doesn’t want to, if he really wants to be in opposition, then we will go and speak to Labour next.”
Hipkins said “one poll is not an election result” and pointed to the morning’s figures. “We’ve got real momentum. We’re getting great feedback on the ground,” he said. “Every vote’s going to matter.” Luxon said his party’s plan was working. “We know that what we’ve been doing is the right stuff,” he said. “We just want more time, and we need another three years to get the job done.” Winston Peters called the Verian poll “crap”. The Verian poll surveyed 1,003 voters between 15 and 19 October with a margin of error of 3.1 points. Luxon stayed on 20 per cent as preferred prime minister while Hipkins fell three points to 17.
The debate itself was moderated by Paddy Gower, with The Post’s Luke Malpass taking the leaders aside for the economic questions. Gower opened on health, and Newstalk ZB reported that he pushed Luxon to say whether the system is in crisis. “I think it’s incredibly challenging,” Luxon replied, and when pressed again said “Well, you can call it … We inherited a crisis, but it is very challenging. It was incredibly difficult.”
A separate 1News-Verian question released the same evening found 70 per cent of voters think the health system is in crisis, against 28 per cent who think it faces challenges but is not. Hipkins told the audience he had visited a hospital that day. “The nurses that I spoke to today are treating children with cancer. Giving them chemotherapy drugs in a hospital waiting room,” he said, according to The Spinoff’s live account. When Luxon said there were more nurses now than when National took office, Hipkins replied “You’re claiming the credit for thousands of new nurses that were hired by Labour.”
Hipkins said the pandemic had put the system under more pressure than at any time in its history. “The health system has never been under more pressure than that. And our health workers, our doctors and our nurses, coped with that remarkably well,” he said. “And all you have done as a Prime Minister is attack them.” Asked by Gower whether his goal was to end patients being treated in corridors, Luxon said “Yes, Paddy, that’s the goal,” and “What we’re doing is we’re investing very strongly in emergency departments infrastructure.”
On the new police move-on powers, Hipkins committed to repealing any criminalisation of homelessness. “Criminalising homeless people is not going to address the problem,” he said. Luxon argued that homelessness had to be seen as part of the wider housing picture. On social media he said he wanted to concentrate on banning it for under-16s rather than on algorithm controls. “I’m sick of admiring the problem,” he said. Both leaders took the easiest question of the night from Malpass, who asked whether Donald Trump’s war in Iran was a mistake, and both said yes, with Hipkins reminding Luxon that he had not been so clear at the time.
The sharpest exchanges came on the economy and on education. Hipkins said shoppers who once put back treats were now putting back essentials. “They are putting back things like their kids’ nappies,” he said, and later “Things haven’t gotten better. It’s gotten harder,” and “Your plan’s not working.” Luxon said he had spent time with people in budgeting services who were struggling, and that rents were more stable than they had been in decades. On superannuation Hipkins committed to keeping the age at 65 while Luxon said the current settings were unsustainable and the age would eventually have to rise.
When Hipkins raised National’s leadership troubles, Luxon answered “The public of New Zealand removed you in 2023 and you’re still here.” When Luxon raised a Mongrel Mob rehabilitation programme funded under Labour and Hipkins pointed out that it began under John Key, Luxon said “John Key left politics a long time ago. I’m not John Key.” Luxon then called Erica Stanford one of the greatest education ministers in the country’s history and turned on Hipkins’ own record in the portfolio. “He is without doubt the most abysmal education minister this country has ever had,” he said, arguing children had not attended school on his watch. “They were at home with Covid,” Hipkins replied.
In the closing quickfire round both leaders said they were open to a referendum on a four year parliamentary term and to lowering the bowel cancer screening age, and both declined to take part in a debate with all seven party leaders. “It’s a shame he only agreed to three,” Hipkins said. The Post columnist Matthew Hooton, on the post-debate panel, said both men came across as bureaucrats. “One is a corporate bureaucrat and one is a Wellington bureaucrat,” he said.
Early voting opens next week and enrolment closes within days. With the two major parties separated by five points in one poll and one point in the other, and a party sitting right on the 5 per cent threshold holding the balance in both, the result on 7 November will come down to turnout and to the votes that are still undecided. If you are among them, our voting tool lets you compare every party’s policies side by side, including their health, tax and superannuation plans.
Did either leader change your mind on Tuesday night, and do you believe the poll that has National surging or the one that has Labour narrowly ahead? Tell us what you think in the comments.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job π
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