New Zealand sold more goods to the rest of the world in June than in any June on record, and then spent almost exactly the same amount buying goods back in. The result was a monthly trade surplus of just 23 million dollars, a rounding error on an 8 billion dollar month.
Figures released by Stats NZ on Monday show goods exports rose 1.6 billion dollars, or 25 per cent, to 8.1 billion in June 2026 compared with June 2025. Goods imports rose 1.7 billion dollars, or 28 per cent, to the same 8.1 billion. The month before, the surplus had been in the hundreds of millions, and market forecasts had picked something closer to 250 million dollars for June.
The headline number is thin, but it is worth being careful about what it actually tells us. A trade balance is a subtraction, and when both sides of the sum are growing by a quarter, the small number left over says more about the size of the fuel bill than about the health of the export sector. On the export side, this was a strong month by almost any measure.
Dairy did the heaviest lifting, as it usually does. Milk powder, butter and cheese exports rose 279 million dollars, or 16 per cent, to 2.1 billion. But the sharper movement came from meat, where exports of meat and edible offal climbed 415 million dollars, a 52 per cent jump on the same month last year. Anyone who has watched schedule prices at the farm gate this season will not be surprised by that, but a 52 per cent lift in a single commodity group is unusual.
The most eye catching export line was infant formula. Stats NZ groups it inside preparations of cereals, flour, milk and starch, a category that rose 269 million dollars, or 130 per cent, to 477 million. Infant formula alone accounted for 255 million of that, rising 181 per cent to 396 million dollars. That is close to a tripling of a single product line in twelve months, and it is a reminder that the category has been through some violent swings over the past decade as Chinese demand, regulation and channel changes have moved around.
China remained the largest destination, with exports there up 353 million dollars, or 24 per cent. Preparations of milk and cereals accounted for 231 million of that rise, meat and edible offal for another 103 million. Exports to the United States rose 314 million dollars, or 43 per cent, led by meat products up 158 million. Australia took 149 million dollars more, or 18 per cent, helped along by an 87 million dollar rise in precious metals. Exports to Japan rose 66 million dollars.
The United States figure sits awkwardly alongside the tariff picture. NEWS WIRE reported last week on expectations of a 12.5 per cent tariff on New Zealand goods entering the US market, and a 43 per cent rise in exports there in June is a useful baseline against which to measure whatever comes next.
The import side is where the surplus went. Petroleum and petroleum products doubled, rising 737 million dollars to 1.5 billion. That single category accounts for well over 40 per cent of the entire increase in imports for the month. Automotive diesel was the standout, with its import value up about 160 per cent on June last year. Some of that is volume, but most of it is price. June 2026 fell in a stretch when global oil and refined fuel prices were elevated on the back of the Middle East conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, and New Zealand, which refines nothing domestically since Marsden Point stopped, imports its diesel and petrol as finished product at whatever the market is charging.
Machinery imports also rose solidly, with electrical machinery and equipment up 210 million dollars, or 36 per cent, and mechanical machinery and equipment up 190 million, or 23 per cent. Those are capital goods, and a lift in them is generally read as a sign that firms are investing rather than sitting on their hands. Taken with the fuel figure, the import surge is not simply a story of households consuming more imported goods.
Stepping back from the monthly noise, the seasonally adjusted quarterly figures show goods exports up 8.1 per cent to 22.4 billion dollars and imports up 7.7 per cent to 23.9 billion. For the full year to June 2026, exports were worth 84.0 billion dollars, up 7.8 billion on the previous year, and imports 87.8 billion, up 7.1 billion. The annual trade deficit narrowed to 3.7 billion dollars from 4.4 billion a year earlier. On that longer view, the trend is a modest improvement, not a deterioration.
The fuel bill is also the part of this most likely to look different next month. Fuel prices have come off since the June data was collected, which should take some pressure off the import line even if export volumes hold. That matters beyond the trade accounts, because fuel has been one of the main drivers pushing consumer prices up, with economists picking June quarter inflation to reach or crack 4 per cent.
For now the June figures describe an economy trading hard in both directions. Farmers and processors are getting good money offshore, businesses are buying machinery, and a large slice of the proceeds is going straight back out the door to pay for fuel.
What do you make of the trade figures. Are you seeing the export strength in your industry, or is the fuel bill eating it. Leave a comment below.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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