National has fallen to its lowest level of support since Christopher Luxon took over the party, and a minor party that has never held a seat is now within touching distance of Parliament. The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, released on Monday, lands less than four months out from the general election on 7 November and points to a race that is far tighter and far more crowded than either big party would like.
Labour held the top spot on 34 percent, down 1.6 points since the March survey but still comfortably ahead of its main rival. National slipped 2.1 points to 28.7 percent. RNZ described that as National’s fourth consecutive decline in the Reid Research series and its weakest result since Luxon became leader in November 2021. For a party that swept into government at the 2023 election, a figure starting with a two is a sobering marker with the campaign about to begin.
The parties around National tell a more complicated story. New Zealand First rose for a third poll in a row, climbing 0.9 points to 11.5 percent, which RNZ reported as Winston Peters’ best showing with Reid Research since July 2017. ACT edged up 0.8 points to 7.8 percent, and the Greens lifted 0.2 points to 10.3 percent. The coalition is not collapsing, but its centre of gravity is shifting away from the largest party and towards its smaller partners.
The sharpest movement of all came from outside Parliament. The Opportunity Party more than doubled its support, jumping 2.7 points to 4.7 percent. That leaves it just 0.3 points short of the 5 percent threshold a party needs to enter Parliament without first winning an electorate seat. A party that has spent every election since 2017 knocking on the door is now close enough that a single strong week of campaigning could put it inside.
Te Pāti Māori sat on 2.3 percent in the party vote, below the threshold, though the party has electorate seats that keep it in Parliament regardless of its nationwide share. The poll surveyed 1000 people through online interviews between 2 and 9 July, with results weighted by age, gender and geography, and carried a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
Turn those percentages into seats and the result is a photo finish. On these numbers the current governing bloc of National, New Zealand First and ACT would return 61 seats in a 120-seat Parliament, the narrowest possible majority. National would take 36 seats, New Zealand First 15 and ACT 10. On the other side, Labour would hold 43 seats, the Greens 13 and Te Pāti Māori 3, for a combined 59. One seat is the entire difference between the coalition governing again and Labour getting the first chance to form a government.
A margin that thin makes every assumption fragile. If the Opportunity Party climbs those last 0.3 points and clears 5 percent, RNZ noted that Parliament’s make-up would shift markedly, because the seats it wins have to come out of the totals of parties already represented. A new party arriving at 5 or 6 percent does not simply add a bloc, it redraws the arithmetic for everyone else and can turn a one-seat majority into no majority at all. That is the scenario keeping strategists in both major camps awake, and it is why a party polling under the threshold is suddenly the most talked-about number in the survey.
The preferred prime minister question offered little comfort to National either. Labour leader Chris Hipkins led on 23.9 percent, ahead of Luxon on 20 percent, with Peters third on 13.2 percent and a large block of voters undecided. A sitting prime minister trailing the leader of the opposition on the personal measure, while his party posts its worst result under his leadership, is the kind of double signal that tends to sharpen internal questions rather than settle them.
None of this decides anything. A single poll is a snapshot with a real margin of error, and the numbers here move by fractions of a point rather than landslides. But the direction of travel over several Reid Research polls now runs one way for National, and the collective strength of the smaller parties means the next Parliament could be assembled from a wider and more awkward set of pieces than the tidy three-party coalition voters returned in 2023. With four months to run, both a coalition win and a change of government remain live, and so does the possibility that a fourth or fifth party ends up holding the balance.
The election is set for 7 November, and voters who want to see where they sit before then can work through the issues with our voting tool. You can read the full breakdown of the survey on RNZ’s politics page.
What do you make of the numbers, and do you think the Opportunity Party will make it over the line this time. Have your say in the comments below.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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