New Zealand’s farmers, growers and foresters are on track to send a record $64.3 billion of food and fibre out the door in the year to the end of June, and the Government was only too happy to wave the number around at Fieldays as it heads into an election.
Forestry, Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced the figure at Mystery Creek near Hamilton, drawing on the latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries report from the Ministry for Primary Industries. Export revenue is forecast to climb 6 per cent on the previous year, which was itself a record, and the report does not expect the sector to stop there, picking $70.1 billion by the year to June 2030.
“Export revenue is forecast to reach $64.3 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, up six per cent, with records across multiple sectors driven by healthy demand for dairy and red meat, alongside bumper kiwifruit and apple crops,” Mr McClay said. He added that “Kiwi farmers are expected to benefit from strong farmgate returns this year due to high milk prices, record milk production and tight global red meat supplies, which will cushion against shipping and supply chain disruptions from the Middle East conflict.”
Dairy remains the heavyweight, with exports tipped to reach $28.6 billion, up 5 per cent, on the back of record milk production of about 2.02 billion kilograms of milksolids. Meat and wool is the standout for growth, lifting 14 per cent to $14.1 billion as a global shortage of cattle and sheep pushes prices up and rewards New Zealand suppliers. Horticulture is forecast at $9.5 billion, up 7 per cent, led by kiwifruit, which is expected to jump 16 per cent to $4.8 billion.
Not every part of the basket is rising. Forestry is forecast to dip slightly to about $6.1 billion and seafood to fall 3 per cent to $2.2 billion, while processed food and other products are expected to add $3.5 billion. The overall picture is still one of a primary sector earning more from the world than ever before, which is no small thing for an economy that has spent the past two years grinding through high interest rates, soft growth and a steady drift of working New Zealanders across the Tasman.
The political timing is not subtle. Fieldays is the biggest agricultural event in the southern hemisphere and a fixture for any politician wanting to be seen alongside gumboots and tractors, and in an election year the Government is keen to claim the rural recovery as evidence its economic plan is working. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was also at Mystery Creek, where the Government announced fresh Growth Fund projects, and ministers have spent the week rolling out a string of primary sector announcements, from land use flexibility for Māori landowners to forestry technology and horticulture changes.
Strong farmgate returns matter well beyond the farm gate. Dairy and meat cheques flow into rural towns, contractors, freight firms and the banks, and a good payout season tends to lift confidence across provincial New Zealand. With the cost of living still topping the list of voter concerns, any minister able to point to billions of extra export dollars has a story worth telling. Voters weighing up which parties best understand the rural economy and the wider cost of living squeeze can compare where each one stands using Newswire’s voting tool.
The catch sits in the following year. The same report warns that the run of records is likely to stall, with export revenue forecast to slip 1 per cent to $63.9 billion in the year to June 2027. The Ministry points to the conflict in the Middle East flowing through the global economy, lifting the cost of fuel, fertiliser and other farm inputs while creating uncertainty about demand in key markets. For a sector that buys much of its diesel and fertiliser from offshore and sells into Asia, Europe and North America, a wider war is the kind of shock that does not respect a balance sheet.
That tension, between a record year now and a harder one ahead, is shaping up as a fault line in the campaign. The Government argues the numbers vindicate its support for farmers and its push to cut what it calls red and green tape. The Opposition has questioned whether the gains are reaching ordinary households fast enough, given grocery prices, rents and power bills that have kept climbing through the same period. Both can find something in the report to back their case.
For now the headline number is the one the Government wants front and centre. A $64.3 billion year, built on record milk and a global protein shortage, is a genuine high point for the people who work the land and sea. Whether it proves to be a peak or a plateau depends on forces well outside any New Zealand minister’s control, from milk prices set in global auctions to a war on the other side of the world.
You can read the full Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries report on the Ministry for Primary Industries website, and the New Zealand Herald has more on the risks building for the coming season.
What do you make of the record export forecast and the warning about next year? Do you think the rural recovery is reaching your household? Have your say in the comments below.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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