The first major opinion poll taken since last month’s Budget suggests the governing coalition would still scrape back into power, but the margin is now wafer thin and Labour remains the single most popular party in the country.
The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, conducted between 4 and 8 June and reported by RNZ, put Labour on 32.2 percent, up 0.3 points, with National in second place on 30.1 percent, up just 0.1 of a point. The Greens were the big movers, climbing 1.8 points to 11.5 percent, while New Zealand First slipped 0.3 points to 11.4 percent. ACT gained 1.3 points to reach 7.8 percent.
Below the parties already in Parliament, The Opportunity Party sat on 3.2 percent and Te Pāti Māori fell a full point to 3.1 percent, both well short of the 5 percent threshold a party needs to win list seats without an electorate.
Translated into seats, the numbers leave the National, New Zealand First and ACT bloc on 62 seats against 58 for a combined Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori opposition. With 61 seats needed for a majority in a 120-seat Parliament, the government would govern by the narrowest possible margin of a single seat. A swing of a percentage point or two in the wrong place, or a different result for Te Pāti Māori in the Māori electorates, would be enough to tip the balance.
That makes this a genuinely close contest five months out from polling day. Labour has now led National as the most popular single party in several recent surveys, yet the arithmetic of coalition partners still favours the right bloc because the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are not always able to convert support into the seats Labour would need to form a government.
On the question of who voters want as Prime Minister, the poll made uncomfortable reading for the two main leaders. Christopher Luxon dropped 2.7 points to 18.8 percent, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins fell 1.9 points to 17.1 percent. Behind them, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters rose 1.2 points to 12.8 percent, Greens co-leader Chloe Swarbrick climbed 2.7 points to 8.1 percent, and ACT leader David Seymour gained 2.4 points to 6.3 percent. The gap between the top two has rarely been this small, a sign that neither of the men most likely to lead the next government has managed to pull clear.
The poll also tracked how favourably voters view individual leaders. Luxon’s net rating improved slightly to minus 19, while Hipkins recorded the biggest jump, lifting six points to minus 7. Peters edged up to minus 5. The clear loser was Seymour, whose net favourability fell 11 points to minus 18 in a single month. Finance Minister Nicola Willis sat on minus 19 and her Labour counterpart Barbara Edmonds on minus 16, underlining how few senior figures on either side are viewed warmly by the public at large.
The survey was the first to be taken after the government delivered its Budget on 28 May, and the early verdict from voters appears to be a shrug. A Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson said the Budget appeared to have given government leaders a modest lift but not enough to break the political deadlock. The two blocs remained locked at 62 and 58 seats, almost exactly where they sat before the spending announcements landed.
As always, a single poll is a snapshot rather than a forecast. This one surveyed 1000 adults, of whom 939 gave a decided party preference, and carries a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent. That margin is wide enough to swallow most of the month-on-month movements in the smaller numbers, so the safer reading is the trend across several polls rather than any one figure. On that measure, the picture for much of 2026 has been remarkably stable, with the two blocs trading the lead by a handful of seats and no party able to build a commanding position.
New Zealanders go to the polls on 7 November, and on these numbers the result could come down to which minor parties clear the 5 percent threshold and how the closest electorate races fall. With the contest this tight, it is worth knowing where you actually stand. You can compare your own views with the parties’ positions using our voting tool before you cast a vote that, this year, might really count.
What do you make of the latest numbers, and has the Budget changed how you will vote in November? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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