Real consumer card spending has fallen for ten quarters in a row.
New Zealanders spent $28.94 billion on debit and credit cards in the March 2026 quarter, Stats NZ figures published on 17 April show. That was up 0.7 percent on the same quarter a year earlier. Consumer prices over the same period rose 3.1 percent. Card-based spending is therefore down 2.3 percent in real terms — the tenth consecutive quarter in which the year-on-year change has been negative.
The Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate four times between mid-2024 and early 2026, and several monthly card releases this year have been read as evidence that the consumer recovery has begun. The single-month figure for March 2026 — actual card spending up 4.1 percent on March 2025 — was widely reported as a turning point. The quarterly figures, which strip out single-month volatility from Easter timing and fuel-price swings, do not support that read.
Ten consecutive quarters of real-terms decline
The unbroken run of year-on-year real declines began in the December 2023 quarter. Each quarter since has been negative.
| Quarter | Card spend $bn | Nominal YoY | CPI YoY | Real YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q4 | 31.26 | +3.2% | +4.7% | –1.4% |
| 2024 Q1 | 29.09 | +3.6% | +4.0% | –0.4% |
| 2024 Q2 | 27.96 | –0.3% | +3.3% | –3.5% |
| 2024 Q3 | 28.01 | –1.0% | +2.2% | –3.1% |
| 2024 Q4 | 31.44 | +0.6% | +2.2% | –1.6% |
| 2025 Q1 | 28.74 | –1.2% | +2.5% | –3.6% |
| 2025 Q2 | 27.35 | –2.2% | +2.7% | –4.7% |
| 2025 Q3 | 27.72 | –1.0% | +3.1% | –4.0% |
| 2025 Q4 | 31.28 | –0.5% | +3.1% | –3.5% |
| 2026 Q1 | 28.94 | +0.7% | +3.1% | –2.3% |
| Source — Stats NZ Electronic Card Transactions Table 6 (actual quarterly values, total industries) and Stats NZ Consumers Price Index All Groups, Q1 2026. | ||||
The real-terms peak was the December 2022 quarter, when post-pandemic reopening still flattered the numbers. The cleanest comparison strips that out. March quarter to March quarter, real card spending in Q1 2026 is down 6.3 percent on its Q1 2023 level. New Zealand’s resident population has grown over those three years, so the decline per person is steeper still.
The decline runs across most categories
Only consumables (supermarket goods) and durables (household goods, electronics) show real volumes rising in the March 2026 quarter. Both increases are within rounding of zero. Every other category fell.
| Category | Nominal YoY | Closest CPI deflator | Real YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumables (groceries) | +3.1% | Grocery food +2.5% | +0.6% |
| Durables (household goods) | +0.4% | Household contents 0.0% | +0.4% |
| Hospitality | +1.6% | Restaurant meals +2.8% | –1.2% |
| Apparel | –0.3% | Clothing and footwear +1.3% | –1.6% |
| Fuel | –2.0% | Petrol +1.1% | –3.1% |
| Vehicles | +0.7% | Transport +3.3% | –2.5% |
| Services | +2.7% | All groups +3.1% | –0.4% |
| Non-retail (excl. services) | –1.9% | All groups +3.1% | –4.8% |
| Total | +0.7% | All groups +3.1% | –2.3% |
| Source — Stats NZ ECT Table 6 March 2026 quarter percentage-change rows and Stats NZ CPI Q1 2026 Level 1 Groups; deflators selected by closest matching category. | |||
The arithmetic of the headline 0.7 percent rise is therefore that grocery and services dollars grew enough to roughly cover their own inflation, while volumes barely moved. Fuel and vehicle spending fell in nominal terms even before deflation, and the non-retail bucket fell hardest of all.
Apparel sits apart from the other categories. Card spending on clothing and footwear has been in nominal decline almost continuously since early 2024, and is now around 8 percent below its Q1 2024 level in nominal terms — closer to 11 percent in real terms.
What the data settles, and what it does not
The Stats NZ release settles four things. Total card-based spending in real terms fell 2.3 percent in the March 2026 quarter compared with the March 2025 quarter. The streak of year-on-year real declines now stands at ten consecutive quarters — the longest in the series since the table begins in 2021. Real volumes fell across all but two of the nine main spending categories in the March quarter, with non-retail, fuel and vehicles leading the decline. And apparel has been the most steady decliner over the past two years, with no quarter of nominal year-on-year growth since the December 2023 quarter.
It does not settle the cause. Falls in discretionary card spending may reflect interest costs, mortgage refixing, employment, household composition, or shifts between cards and other payment methods. The card data describes outcomes, not motives.
Nor does it settle whether non-card spending is offsetting the decline. Cash, online direct debits, and rent and mortgage payments are not in this dataset, and have grown as shares of total spending over the past decade.
Whether the next quarter will turn is also unsettled. The seasonally-adjusted monthly card series has shown small positive month-on-month growth since mid-2025, but that growth has so far been below CPI in every quarter to date. The earlier rate cuts may yet feed through to spending behaviour. As of March 2026, they have not.
This piece uses Stats NZ Electronic Card Transactions, March 2026 release (Table 1 monthly and Table 6 quarterly actual values, total industries) published 17 April 2026, and Stats NZ Consumers Price Index, March 2026 quarter (All Groups and Level 1 Groups index numbers) also published 17 April 2026. Real values are computed by deflating each nominal series by the closest matching CPI Level 1 group, with the headline real total deflated by CPI All Groups. Card transaction values include GST and are gross of refunds; they cover all transactions on New Zealand-issued cards plus all transactions on overseas cards processed through New Zealand merchants.
Has the cost of living changed how you use your card? Tell us in the comments below.
This article was written by AI, briefed to report the facts, hopefully without some of the bias people bring to the job 🙂
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